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KEDIRI - The new island in the crater lake of the Mount Kelud volcano has been identified as being remaining lava from it's latest eruption in 1990. There are now three different scenarios for a likely eruption of the 1,731 meter high volcano. According to the Center for Volcanology and Geophysics in Bandung, there are three scenarios with an even chance of happening. "We didn't chance the alert status of the volcano so it is still at the highest alert level," said Agus Budianto, head of the Volcano Watch Department.
According to Agus, the first scenario is that the activity of the volcano will come down because there is currently gas escaping from the newly formed island. The second scenario is that the water in the crater lake, at this moment some 2.5 million cubic meters, will leak away to the magma chamber via the lava cork that was formed in the 1990 eruption. This could cause a phreatic eruption; a violent explosive eruption when the water comes in contact with the magma inside the volcano.
The third scenario is that when the energy build-up inside the volcano continues, the magma will be forced upwards towards the crater lake, which will cause steam that has to find it's way out via the top of the volcano. This will cause the most violent eruption out of the three options currently available.
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