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JAKARTA - Indonesia's looming fuel price increases Saturday will power protests that will bruise, but not cripple, the government of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, analysts say.
A government compensation plan and timing of the fuel price increase for the eve of the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan will help defuse public anger over the cut in price subsidies that have given Indonesians some of the cheapest fuel in the world for decades.
Yudhoyono's "government won't be very popular (after the fuel price increases), but I don't think it's in any danger," said Dewi Fortuna Anwar, Indonesian Institute of Sciences deputy chair for social sciences and humanities. He "is no Gloria Arroyo", Anwar added, referring to the recent massive demonstrations against the embattled Philippine president.
Yudhoyono announced the fuel price subsidy cut Friday, but didn't elaborate on the size of the pending price rise. But the government's recent decision to cap budget-crippling fuel subsidy costs at IDR89.2 trillion in 2005, a reduction from an earlier projection of IDR138.6 trillion, indicates that fuel prices must rise by an average of 50%, said Irene Cheung, ABN AMRO's head of Asia sovereign and foreign-exchange strategy, in a research report.
Subsidized gasoline costs Indonesian motorists IDR2,400, or less than 25 cents, per liter. The start of Ramadan in the week following the fuel price increases should reduce the type of potentially explosive street protests that plagued Yudhoyono's predecessor, Megawati Sukarnoputri, in 2002 when she announced deep cuts in fuel, telephone and electricity subsidies, said Jakarta-based security risk analyst Ken Conboy. Those protests forced Megawati to abort the planned cuts.
The bulk of Indonesia's 80% Muslim population abstain from eating and drinking during the annual Ramadan period. "Yudhoyono will benefit from the Ramadan fatigue factor," Conboy said. "If (eople aren't drinking all day, they are less prone to go into the hot sun to protest."
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Fuel scarcity worsens before price hikes
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Gasoline and diesel shortages worsened across Indonesia as the government's scheduled price increase on Oct. 1 draws near, Jakarta Post reported on Tuesday. Filling stations were packed with long lines of vehicles, while police officers desperately tried to track down on and nab people thought to be hoarding fuel until the price goes up, according to the Jakarta Post.
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Jantje
User
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I'm glad to have an inlaw visitor dirumah. He can fill up my tank and jerrycan tomorrow at the gas station. This will take him at least 2 hours because of the kilometer queue. This since Monday morning. 
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