blog.indahnesia.com - Discover Indonesia Online

    
You are currently in > Just a blog about Indonesia > The coming political panorama in Indonesia: A speculation


JAKARTA - Back in May 1998 I wrote that “the departure of Suharto as President Indonesia will very probably be followed by the emergence of new political forces and the disappearance or decline of old established forces.” I had no inkling at that time that there would be 98 political parties trying to win the trust of the people and competing for seats at the national, provincial, and district parliaments. I also had no foreboding that the competition for seats in the executive offices would so truculent and create the culture of “money politics.” I was also entirely unprepared for a new political game that at the end made a winner become the big loser, while a collection of losers become the winner.
In addition, I was so disappointed to watch that “the old forces” which I thought would soon disintegrate survive the historic political test, and remain active players in Indonesian politics. I underestimated the savvy of these “old established forces” and overestimated the strength of the public sense of history. These old political forces demonstrated their expertise as political acrobats. Maurice Barres, a French novelist and politician once remarked that political acrobats are politicians who keeps their balance by saying the opposite of what they do. The survival of these old political players was the product of their ability to use and abuse the new political language. Politicians who understand democracy have no difficulty in speaking this new language. But those who deep in their hearts still believe in the politics of indoctrination and repression –military politicians for instance—have great difficulty in speaking the language of reform.
Now, two and a half years after that tumultuous political transition that started in May 1998, politicians and political groups are seen preparing themselves for the next big political competition, the 2004 general election. It is not only political parties that are at present represented in the House of Representatives that are engaged in these political preparations, but political groups that are still outside the “official arena” are also seen doing the same activities. It will be interesting to ask in this regard, how the political landscape of the country will look like as the result of the 2004 general election.
It is still too early to talk about the contour of the next political community in Indonesia. Nonetheless, one thing looks quite sure to me, i.e. that the situation at the “left of center” side of our political spectrum will probably show a significant change. And my guess is –and this is purely a guess-- that the space at the “right of center” side of our political system will not be much altered after 2004. What is the basis of this speculation?
I based my speculation about changes at the “left of center” side on my observation that at the moment political groups that harbor “progressive” ideas–genuine democracy building, greater social justice, formation of civil society, etc.,etc.—do not feel represented by Partai Demokrasi Indonesia Perjuangan (PDI-P). This is the one party that is perceived by many as occupying the space at the left side of the center at the moment. But political activists who currently have gathered in para-political organizations like Partai Rakyat Demokrasi (PRD), or groups that call themselves “Social-Democrats”, labor unions, a number of NGO’s like Urban Poor Consortium (UPC), and politically minded intellectuals are not interested to join PDI-P. Many people in these groups frequently say that this is because PDI-P does not really know what ‘democracy’ is, and that many of its leaders behave in a manner that does not indicate signs of democratic spirit.
Some of these groups show signs of wanting to become political parties, while some others seem determined to stay “neutral”, meaning politically active without officially joining any political party. For the time being, they prefer to maintain their status as mass organizations or as non-governmental organizations. I think those who decide to form political parties will place their parties at the same side as PDI-P, and as such they will become “rivals” or allies of PDI-P, depending on the demand of situation at any given time.. Those who want to maintain their existence as a mass organizations or as an NGO will become, in my opinion, embryos for civil society organization and will exert effluence on the behavior of parties at the “left of center” side. No splinter groups originating from the old PNI camp, the Marhenis camp, and the old PDI camp will play any significant role in the coming political competition.
At the “right of center” side of the political spectrum what may happen is regrouping or reconfiguration of political forces that are already there at the moment. This means that perhaps a realignment of political parties based on Islam will take place. One question that merits our attention is whether the presence of Front Pembela Islam (FPI) and the Lasykar Jihad Ahlissunah wal Jama’ah will leave impact on the next group of Islamic parties. One possibility is that their presence at the moment will in the future radicalize some of the Islamic parties. Faisal Basri of the Partai Amanat Nasional (PAN) thinks that this is unlikely. He based his opinion after comparing the results of the 1955 general election with those of the 1999 general election. And what he sees is that there is tendency to move toward the center. Accrding to him, extremism at both sides of the spectrum is unlikely in the future.
Who will come out as the big winner in the 2004 general election? Three political parties assert that they will be the big winner in the coming general election, i.e. Partai Kesatuan Bangsa (PKB), the GOLKAR Party, and Partai Demokrasi Indonesia Perjuangan (PDIP). Each of these three parties has its own calculations for hoping so. PKB is sure to become the next winner, because it is now in the government. In this position it feels it can dominate the next campaign period. And according to sources that do not wish to be identified, PKB has also begun building a huge campaign funds. And political campaigning being a matter of “buying” votes it is very sure that it will be able to attract –again through money—a large block of voters to its side.
GOLKAR is sure to get a large size of the national votes because it has the political experience, it has money. And it dominates the bureaucracy. With three assets there is no reason for fearing that in the next election it will come out only as the second largest party. This time they will be the big winner. And the winner takes all. PDI-P is equally sure that it will come out of the next election with a greater share of the national votes. It is still has its popular leader, Vice President Megawati Soekarnoputri, and this is a very important asset. Which leader can top her in this regard?
Who will come out as the real winner? I have neither the information nor the intellectual capability to evaluate these three assertions. But the information I have concerning political groups that are now at work in Indonesia reminds me of Henry Adams’ statement that “Modern politics is, at bottom, a struggle not of men but of forces. The men become every year more and more creatures of force, massed about central powerhouses.” The art of managing these forces is to ensure, to paraphrase Henry Adams, that these political powerhouses do not become organizations that systematically exploit prejudices, dislikes, and hatreds. Genuine democracy can be built only on mutual trust and consultations. This is, I think, a maxim that future political leaders have to keep in mind.

Mochtar Buchori




Posted in Politics @ 11 December 2000 by Jeroen · 'Blog' RSS feed · permalink






There are no reactions on this blog entry yet. Be the first one to give a reaction here!


Log in to write a reaction

You are not logged in to the website. You have to be logged in to write a reaction on this blog entry.

· If you already have an account, please login.
· If you have lost your password, please retrieve it.
· If you don't have an account yet, you can create one.

    
 ABOUT THIS ENTRY
Add this blog entry to your email, your own blog, MySpace, Facebook, or whatsoever via AddThis:
Bookmark and Share

e-mail updates for this blog article

Login if you want to receive emails for reactions on this blog entry. You will receive an update as soon as a reaction on this blog entry is posted.

Your website for tickets in Indonesia!
Looking for e-tickets for flights in Indonesia? Here's your solution! Order your e-tickets at ticketindonesia.info.
 FOLLOW US ON TWITTER
 BLOG ARCHIVE
· 2015, 28 entries
· 2014, 591 entries
· 2013, 750 entries
· 2012, 1061 entries
· 2011, 792 entries
· 2010, 644 entries
· 2009, 916 entries
· 2008, 504 entries
· 2007, 725 entries
· 2006, 1014 entries
· 2005, 723 entries
· 2004, 558 entries
· 2003, 525 entries
· 2002, 375 entries
· 2001, 162 entries
 POPULAR TAGS
· gigolo
· jakarta
· blogger
Automatically generated every hour
 BLOG CATEGORIES
· General (1205 entries)
· Economy (643 entries)
· Politics (574 entries)
· Accidents (561 entries)
· Terrorism (541 entries)
· Earthquake (539 entries)
· Volcanoes (387 entries)
· Crime (357 entries)
· Corruption (349 entries)
· Flooding (278 entries)
· Elections (276 entries)
· Travel (268 entries)
· Bird Flu (254 entries)
· Religion (242 entries)
· Tourism (239 entries)
· Oddly enough ... (219 entries)
· Violence (198 entries)
· Drugs (196 entries)
· Health (192 entries)
· Aceh conflict (191 entries)
· Environment (185 entries)
· Weather (171 entries)
· Military (168 entries)
· Protests (157 entries)
· Culture (106 entries)
· Garuda Indonesia (91 entries)
· C. Sulawesi conflict (86 entries)
· Human rights (82 entries)
· Forest fires (78 entries)
· Sidoarjo mudflow (71 entries)
· Power supply (64 entries)
· Ramadan (63 entries)
· PT Freeport (55 entries)
· Picture guess (48 entries)
· Maluku conflict (47 entries)
· Dengue Fever (37 entries)
· History (37 entries)
· Infrastructure (36 entries)
· Polio (35 entries)
· Mexican flu (35 entries)
· Website (25 entries)
· Media (22 entries)
· Nuclear power (21 entries)
· Sports (20 entries)
· Sexy (16 entries)
· SARS (15 entries)
· Nightlife (10 entries)
· Others (5 entries)
· Lippo Cikarang (5 entries)
· Close smallest categories
 EXCHANGE RATES
EUR-IDR: 16,590 · 16,620  The Rupiah rate declined since yesterday
@ 17 May 2018 18:12 CET
JPY-IDR: 126.83 · 126.95  The Rupiah rate improved since yesterday
@ 17 May 2018 21:58 CET
MYR-IDR: 3,545 · 3,549  The Rupiah rate declined since yesterday
@ 15 May 2018 08:42 CET
SGD-IDR: 10,479 · 10,501  The Rupiah rate declined since yesterday
@ 07 May 2018 07:48 CET
THB-IDR: 439.14 · 439.41  The Rupiah rate declined since yesterday
@ 16 May 2018 09:18 CET
USD-IDR: 14,097 · 14,157  The Rupiah rate declined since yesterday
@ 17 May 2018 00:46 CET
Go to 'exchange rates' 
 MOST RECENT REACTIONS
·  At 14 July 2020 08:32 newnight reacted on Three more bodies of AirAsia victims to Surabaya hospital
·  At 20 September 2018 06:54 erik12 reacted on Fuel prices lowered, again
·  At 19 October 2015 17:17 imambudianto5 reacted on Bank Indonesia maintains benchmark interest rate at 7.75%
·  At 04 March 2015 19:18 merdekaSah reacted on Alleged terrorists shot dead three villagers in Poso
·  At 04 March 2015 13:11 Yogya-Bali reacted on Alleged terrorists shot dead three villagers in Poso
·  At 26 February 2015 13:02 Irena reacted on Sexy, a young woman with candy
·  At 08 May 2014 09:51 jstar reacted on No alcohol should be sold in warung
·  At 01 May 2014 10:07 jstar reacted on Indonesia to be among the top 10 peacekeeping contributors
·  At 27 March 2014 05:50 harlys reacted on PPP leader voices concern over Islamic parties' future
·  At 10 March 2014 06:11 Yogya-Bali reacted on Sriwijaya Air leaves behind 200 passengers at airport
·  At 09 March 2014 00:11 Yerun reacted on Sriwijaya Air leaves behind 200 passengers at airport
·  At 08 March 2014 20:33 nicknick reacted on Sriwijaya Air leaves behind 200 passengers at airport
·  At 18 February 2014 04:17 Yerun reacted on Ash from Mount Kelud eruption spreads over all of Java
·  At 16 February 2014 05:41 Amed East Bali reacted on Ash from Mount Kelud eruption spreads over all of Java
·  At 14 February 2014 22:27 Anne Mieke reacted on Asylum seekers in Medan wish to be sent to Australia
·  At 14 February 2014 22:22 beritaislam reacted on Asylum seekers in Medan wish to be sent to Australia
·  At 16 January 2014 15:37 Anne Mieke reacted on Landslides cut off Tomohon-Manado road
·  At 16 January 2014 15:21 Yerun reacted on Landslides cut off Tomohon-Manado road
·  At 16 January 2014 15:05 Anne Mieke reacted on Landslides cut off Tomohon-Manado road
·  At 16 January 2014 14:48 Yerun reacted on Landslides cut off Tomohon-Manado road
Go to 'forum topics' 

Created by indahnesia.com · feedback & contact · © 2000-2020
Other websites by indahnesia.com: ticketindonesia.info · kamus-online.com · indonesiepagina.nl · suvono.nl

Valid HTML 4.01 Transitional 140,449,582 pageviews Discover Indonesia Online at indahnesia.com